adas技術實現途徑

By Sonia Aggarwal, Mike O’Boyle, and Amol Phadke

通過 索尼婭AGGARWAL ， 邁克·奧博伊爾 和 阿莫爾Phadke

150 million Americans regularly breathe unhealthy, polluted air. But recently announced targets to achieve 100 percent clean power by the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis and Joe Biden’s presidential campaign would eliminate all air pollution from power plants.

1.5億美國人定期呼吸不健康，被污染的空氣 。 但是最近由眾議院氣候危機特別委員會宣布的實現100％清潔能源的目標以及喬·拜登的總統競選活動將消除發電廠的所有空氣污染。

The public health benefits of realizing 100 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035 would be enormous. New analysis from Energy Innovation’s Energy Policy Simulator shows that reaching 100 percent by 2035 would avoid around 16,000 premature deaths in that year, as well as 425,000 asthma attacks, 19,000 heart attacks, and more, as shown in the table below. Moreover, avoiding all these negative health impacts creates massive economic productivity gains — getting to 100 percent in 2035 would avoid losing about 1.7 million workdays to poor health.

到2035年實現100％零碳電力的公共健康利益將是巨大的。 Energy Innovation的Energy Policy Simulator的新分析表明， 到2035年，這100％的比例將避免當年避免約16,000例過早死亡，并避免425,000例哮喘發作，19,000例心臟病發作，如下表所示。 此外，避免所有這些不利的健康影響會帶來巨大的經濟生產力提高，到2035年達到100％可以避免因健康狀況不佳而損失大約170萬個工作日。

Beyond improving health, getting to 100 percent zero carbon electricity would also be a boon for the climate, eliminating more than a quarter of America’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2035. Zero carbon electricity can also enable further emissions reductions from transport, buildings, and industry via electric vehicles, efficient electric appliances, and electric industrial processes. Moreover, successfully decarbonizing our electricity sector would provide spillover benefits beyond our borders — in the form of technology available at lower costs to help reduce GHG emissions in other countries, as well as a clear signal to the world that U.S. is serious about addressing climate change.

除了改善健康狀況外，達到100％的零碳電力也將為氣候帶來福音，到2035年消除超過美國四分之一的溫室氣體(GHG)排放。零碳電力還可以進一步減少交通，建筑，以及通過電動汽車，高效電器和電氣工業流程進行的工業。 此外，成功地使我們的電力部門脫碳將以較低的成本提供技術形式，以幫助減少其他國家的溫室氣體排放，并向世界發出明確的信號，美國正認真對待應對氣候變化，這將為我們提供超越國界的溢出效益。 。

All these social benefits — health and climate — really add up. The avoided climate damages between 2020 and 2035 total about $500 billion, using the social cost of carbon developed under the Obama administration. Economists would value the avoided health impacts over the same period around $690 billion, so the combined health and climate benefits of achieving 100 percent zero carbon electricity reach about $1.2 trillion by 2035 (assuming a 3 percent discount rate).

所有這些社會福利-健康和氣候-確實加起來。 2020年至2035年期間，避免的氣候損失總計約5,000億美元，其中使用了奧巴馬政府領導下的碳排放社會成本。 經濟學家們估計，同期避免的健康影響約為6900億美元，因此，到2035年，實現100％零碳電力所帶來的健康和氣候效益的總和將達到約1.2萬億美元(假設貼現率為3％)。

If these public health and climate benefits were not reason enough to decarbonize the electricity system, getting onto this path drives investment, supporting at least 500,000 healthy and safe new jobs just when our economy could really use them in the current situation of massive unemployment.

如果這些公共健康和氣候效益不足以使電力系統脫碳，那么走上這條路就可以推動投資，至少在當前失業率高企的情況下，我們的經濟才能真正利用這些就業機會，至少支持500,000個健康安全的新工作。

Given these overwhelming benefits, the critical outstanding question is whether all this will be affordable for American electricity consumers, and the answer is thankfully “yes!”

鑒于這些壓倒性的好處，一個關鍵的懸而未決的問題是，這一切對于美國的電力消費者而言是否可以負擔得起，答案是“可以！”

The 2035 Report, a recent study by researchers from the University of California-Berkeley, confirms the U.S. could get 90 percent of its electricity from zero carbon sources by 2035. Detailed grid modeling underlying the study shows electricity demand being met reliably in every hour between now and 2035 under a variety of weather scenarios. What’s more, ever-cheaper wind, solar, and batteries enable us to reach 90 clean electricity while reducing wholesale electricity costs 10 percent from today’s levels.

加州大學伯克利分校的研究人員最近進行的一項研究《 2035年報告》證實，到2035年 ，美國可以從零碳源中獲取90％的電力。該研究所依據的詳細網格模型顯示，在此期間的每一小時中，可靠地滿足了電力需求現在和2035年在各種天氣情況下。 而且，更便宜的風能，太陽能和電池使我們能夠達到90股清潔電力，同時將批發電力成本從如今的水平降低了10％。

Compared with other studies of its kind, the 2035 Report focused on how affordable it would be to get most of the way there on decarbonizing the electricity sector, much faster than conventional wisdom has typically suggested. And most of the public health and economic benefits come from reaching 90 percent, so it’s a no-regrets path to start down now.

與同類研究相比，《 2035年報告》側重于以大多數方式實現電力行業脫碳的負擔能力，這比傳統觀點通常所建議的要快得多。 而且大多數公共健康和經濟收益來自達到90％的水平，因此從現在開始這是不容小reg的道路。

But of course, when we talk about 90 percent clean by 2035, the next questions become: What about that last 10 percent, especially considering recently announced policy goals calling for 100 percent? How would we build on 90 percent to get to 100 percent clean? What would the system look like, and how quickly could we realistically achieve 100 percent? Could we even do it by 2035 without breaking the bank, or the electric grid for that matter?

但是，當然，當我們談論到2035年達到90％的清潔度時，接下來的問題就變成了：那最后的10％呢？尤其是考慮到最近宣布的政策目標要求100％清潔？ 我們將如何在90％的基礎上獲得100％的清潔度？ 該系統將是什么樣子，而實際上要多快才能達到100％？ 我們能在2035年之前做到這一點而又不破壞資金或電網嗎？

Many academics, researchers, and consultants have explored questions about how to decarbonize the last 10 percent of the electricity system. Unlike the first 90 percent, which can be achieved with well-known and commercially proven technologies, the last 10 percent raises serious questions about how to best match clean electricity supply with demand, especially during multi-week periods of low wind and sun, or when seasonal demand (for heat or air conditioning, for example) does not match regional clean energy availability. And if the imperative is reducing overall pollution and climate impacts, there are cheaper and easier sources for the same reductions — from our vehicles or buildings, for example.

許多學者，研究人員和顧問都探討了有關如何使電力系統的最后10％脫碳的問題。 與前90％可以通過眾所周知且經過商業驗證的技術來實現的方法不同，后10％提出了有關如何使清潔電力供應與需求最佳匹配的嚴峻問題，尤其是在幾周的低風和日照期間，或者當季節性需求(例如供熱或空調)與區域清潔能源供應不匹配時。 而且如果必須要減少總體污染和氣候影響，那么有同樣便宜的更便宜，更容易獲得的資源，例如我們的車輛或建筑物。

But to explore whether 100 percent zero carbon electricity is possible by 2035, let’s start with a couple stats about the first 90 percent. First, the 2035 Report shows that developers would need to install solar and wind at double the historical-best rate throughout the 2020s, and triple the historical-best rate in the 2030s. This increased pace will be challenging, but certainly reasonable. So reasonable, in fact, that there is likely some room to go even faster if the policy environment is right.

但是，要探討到2035年是否有可能實現100％的零碳電力，讓我們從前90％的一些統計數據開始。 首先，《 2035年報告》顯示，開發商將需要在整個2020年代將太陽能和風能的安裝價格提高到歷史最高水平的兩倍，并在2030年代將其安裝到歷史最高水平。 增長的步伐將具有挑戰性，但肯定是合理的。 實際上，如此合理，以至于如果政策環境合適的話，還有可能還有更快的發展空間 。

Second, the 2035 Report findings indicate it is possible to decrease wholesale electricity rates by approximately 10 percent from today’s levels even as the system reaches 90 percent zero carbon. This creates a reasonable budget to get rid of the last ~200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions while keeping wholesale costs similar to today’s levels.

其次，《 2035年報告》的調查結果表明，即使系統達到零碳排放量的90％，也有可能將批發電價從目前的水平降低大約10％。 這將產生合理的預算，以消除最后的約2億噸二氧化碳(CO2)排放，同時保持批發成本與當今水平相當。

An illustrative analysis by the University of California-Berkeley and Energy Innovation team indicates America may be able to reach a zero-carbon electricity system without meaningfully raising wholesale electricity rates from today’s levels with a combination of technologies not yet commercialized but currently on the horizon:

加利福尼亞大學伯克利分校和能源創新團隊進行的一項說明性分析表明，美國可能可以實現零碳電力系統，而無需通過將尚未商業化但目前正在醞釀的技術相結合來將批發電價從當今水平顯著提高：

• Using hydrogen produced by green electricity in gas turbines retrofitted to burn pure hydrogen
  在改造后的燃氣輪機中使用綠色電力產生的氫氣燃燒純氫氣
• Using hydrogen produced by green electricity in in fuel cells
  在燃料電池中使用綠色電力產生的氫氣
• Burning synthetic methane or biogas in existing gas plants
  在現有的煤氣廠中燃燒合成甲烷或沼氣
• Capturing and sequestering CO2 from existing gas plants
  從現有的煤氣廠中捕獲和封存二氧化碳
• Direct air capture of CO2 from ambient air
  直接從周圍空氣中捕獲二氧化碳

Green hydrogen is already capturing the attention of large utilities that are serious about decarbonization such as Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) and NextEra Energy. LADWP’s latest planned 840 megawatt (MW) natural gas plant will run on 30 percent hydrogen on day one of its operation beginning in 2025, with plans to run it on 100 percent hydrogen by 2045. NextEra has proposed a $65 million pilot in Florida that will use a 20 MW electrolyzer to produce 100 percent green hydrogen from solar power, and blend it into another existing gas plant.

綠氫已經引起了重視脫碳的大型公用事業公司的關注，例如洛杉磯水電局(LADWP)和NextEra Energy。 LADWP最新計劃的840兆瓦(MW)天然氣電廠將從 2025年開始運營的第一天就以30％的氫氣運行，并計劃到2045年以100％的氫氣運行。NextEra 建議在佛羅里達州進行6500萬美元的試點 ，使用20兆瓦的電解槽從太陽能中產生100％的綠色氫氣，然后將其混合到另一個現有的天然氣工廠中。

Meanwhile, Europe’s latest hydrogen strategy is calling for 6 gigawatts (GW) of electrolyzers by 2024, scaling to 40 GW by 2030. Given that the continent has less than 1 GW of electrolyzers today, this will require a massive scale-up in a relatively short timeframe. This is worth watching, and if successful, has a real chance of helping to bring down costs of electrolysis in the U.S.

同時，歐洲最新的氫氣戰略要求到2024年將達到6吉瓦(GW)的電解槽 ，到2030年將達到40 GW。鑒于該大陸目前的電解槽不足1 GW，這將需要在相對規模的基礎上進行大規模擴大時間短。 這值得一看，如果成功的話，它確實有機會幫助降低美國的電解成本

Using conservative cost estimates for hydrogen retrofits and green hydrogen costs from electrolyzers (a relatively mature — but still relatively expensive — technology), we find that retrofitting all the remaining gas plants in the 2035 Report to burn 100 percent green hydrogen would cost somewhere between 11.7–14.8 cents per kilowatt-hour (cents/kWh). Combined with the costs of the first 90 percent zero carbon electricity, this pathway would result in overall wholesale electricity rates around 5.3–5.6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is quite similar to today’s average rate of 5.2 cents/kWh.

使用保守的氫氣改造成本估算和電解器產生的綠色氫氣成本(一種相對成熟但仍然相對昂貴的技術)，我們發現，將2035年報告中所有剩余的天然氣工廠改造為燃燒100％的綠色氫氣將花費大約11.7歐元每千瓦時–14.8美分(美分/ kWh)。 結合最初90％的零碳電力的成本，這種途徑將導致2035年的整體批發電價約為5.3-5.6美分/千瓦時，與今天的平均電價5.2美分/千瓦時非常相似。

Another pathway for green hydrogen in the electric power sector would be as storage via fuel cells. Producing the last 10 percent of zero carbon electricity beyond the 90 percent zero carbon system modeled in the 2035 Report would result in electricity rates in the range of 8.5–14.3 cents/kWh, resulting in overall wholesale electricity rates ranging from 5–5.6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is right in the range of today’s average rate.

電力部門中綠色氫的另一條途徑是通過燃料電池進行存儲。 超出2035年報告中模型的90％零碳系統生產最后的10％零碳電價，將導致電價介于8.5–14.3美分/千瓦時之間，導致整體批發電價介于5–5.6美分/ 2035年的千瓦時，正好在今天的平均費率范圍內。

Green synthetic methane relies on chemical processes to convert green hydrogen into methane to be burned in existing gas power plants. This zero-carbon fuel source has the advantage of being directly usable in existing power plants, however it requires additional energy to convert electrolyzed hydrogen into methane, increasing input fuel costs relative to hydrogen. Blending synthetic methane with biomethane, captured from landfills or dairy farms, could reduce these input costs, though biomethane sources are relatively limited. At the same time, transporting green synthetic methane (a potent greenhouse gas in itself) using existing natural gas pipeline infrastructure could still result in significant leakage, offsetting the emissions benefits.

綠色合成甲烷依靠化學過程將綠色氫轉化為甲烷，然后在現有的燃氣發電廠中燃燒。 這種零碳燃料源具有可直接在現有發電廠中使用的優勢，但是它需要額外的能量才能將電解氫轉化為甲烷，從而增加了相對于氫的輸入燃料成本。 盡管生物甲烷源相對有限，但將合成甲烷與從垃圾填埋場或奶牛場捕獲的生物甲烷混合可以降低這些投入成本。 同時，使用現有的天然氣管道基礎設施運輸綠色合成甲烷(本身就是有效的溫室氣體)仍可能導致大量泄漏，從而抵消了排放的好處。

Using conservative cost estimates for green methane, we find burning 100 percent green methane in the remaining gas fleet from the 2035 Report would cost about 12.6–14.7 cents/kWh, resulting in overall wholesale electricity rates around 5.4–5.6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is as again similar to today’s average rate.

根據保守的綠色甲烷成本估算，我們發現，《 2035年報告 》中剩余燃氣中100％燃燒綠色甲烷的成本約為12.6-14.7美分/千瓦時，導致2035年整體批發電價約為5.4-5.6美分/千瓦時，這再次類似于今天的平均匯率。

Carbon capture and sequestration has been piloted in the U.S. The Petra Nova power plant project in Texas retrofitted an existing coal-fired power plant to capture 90 percent of its emissions. The captured CO2 is compressed, dried, and transported to the West Ranch Oil Field in Jackson County, Texas, then pumped underground to boost oil production in a process called “enhanced oil recovery.” However, it is important to note Petra Nova was recently mothballed because low oil prices no longer justify purchasing the captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The whole carbon capture, transport, and sequestration process is still relatively expensive, and only economically justified as a pilot when used for oil recovery at relatively high oil prices.

碳捕集與封存已在美國進行了試點。德克薩斯州的Petra Nova電廠項目改造了現有的燃煤電廠，以捕集其90％的排放。 捕獲的二氧化碳經過壓縮，干燥并輸送到德克薩斯州杰克遜縣的西牧場油田，然后通過稱為“強化采油”的過程泵入地下以提高石油產量。 但是，重要的是要注意，Petra Nova最近被封存，因為低油價不再有理由購買捕獲的二氧化碳以提高采油率。 整個碳捕獲，運輸和封存過程仍然相對昂貴，并且只有在以較高油價用于石油采收時才在經濟上作為試點是合理的。

Using conservative cost estimates for retrofitting existing gas plants with carbon capture technology, and accounting for transportation and sequestration costs, we find capturing 90 percent of carbon emissions from the remaining gas fleet in the 2035 Report would cost about 11.4 cents/kWh, resulting in overall wholesale power costs around 5.3 cents/kWh in 2035, which is about the same as today’s average wholesale rate. Note this would leave about 20 million tonnes of electric power sector GHG emissions, which would need to be offset in other ways — perhaps via direct air capture, as described next.

使用保守的成本估算來利用碳捕獲技術改造現有的天然氣工廠，并考慮運輸和封存成本，我們發現在2035年報告中捕獲剩余天然氣車隊90％的碳排放將花費約11.4美分/ kWh，因此總體上2035年，批發電力成本約為5.3美分/千瓦時，與今天的平均批發價格相同。 請注意，這將留下約2000萬噸的電力部門溫室氣體排放量，這需要以其他方式進行補償-可能通過直接空氣捕獲來彌補，如下所述。

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 is a nascent technology with potential to scale and see cost reductions over time. A recent techno-economic assessment of DAC found that demonstration projects could capture CO2 at costs around $350/ton today. The same study (and projections by company Carbon Engineering) found costs could drop below $200/ton with significant commercialization. Using waste heat could further reduce costs.

二氧化碳的直接空氣捕獲(DAC)是一項新興技術，具有隨著時間推移而擴大規模并降低成本的潛力。 DAC的最新技術經濟評估發現，示范項目現在可以以約350美元/噸的成本捕獲CO2。 同一項研究(以及Carbon Engineering公司的預測 )發現，隨著大量的商業化生產，成本可能降至200美元/噸以下。 使用廢熱可以進一步降低成本。

DAC is a particularly flexible option to offset the final electric sector emissions because it does not require co-location with any generator, and could also provide grid benefits by operating as a flexible source of electricity demand, running when “excess” zero carbon electricity is being generated. As such, DAC could complement any other pathway to 100 percent, and provides a de facto cost ceiling for reaching net zero emissions for the electricity system.

DAC是一種抵消最終電力部門排放的特別靈活的選擇，因為它不需要與任何發電機并置，并且還可以通過作為靈活的電力需求源(在“零”零碳電力是正在生成。 因此，DAC可以將任何其他途徑補充到100％，并為達到電力系統的凈零排放量提供了事實上的成本上限。

Using best available cost estimates for capturing the approximately 200 million tonnes of CO2 emitted by the remaining gas fleet in the 2035 Report, and accounting for transportation and sequestration costs, we find using DAC for offsets would imply an equivalent “cost of generation” for the last 10 percent of between 11–19 cents/kWh.

根據2035年報告中使用的最佳成本估算來捕獲剩余天然氣車隊排放的大約2億噸CO2，并考慮運輸和封存成本，我們發現使用DAC來抵消將意味著碳當量的“發電成本”相當。在11-19美分/千瓦時之間的最后10％。

Where exactly this option lands in this range depends on whether DAC is deployed at any meaningful scale in the 2020s, and whether that deployment results in cost reductions over time. These estimates would put total average wholesale power costs for 100 percent net zero electricity using DAC for the last 10 percent somewhere between 5.2–6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is as much as 15 percent higher than today’s average wholesale rate.

該選項在此范圍內的確切位置取決于DAC是否在2020年代以任何有意義的規模部署，以及該部署是否會導致成本隨時間降低。 這些估算值將得出2035年使用DAC的最后10％的總平均批發電力成本為100％凈零電，介于5.2-6美分/千瓦時之間，比今天的平均批發價格高出15％。

In sum…

總共…

It’s true that eliminating the last 10 percent of electricity system emissions is more expensive than the first 90 percent, and the priority should remain on accelerating clean energy build-out now to get on either pathway. But summiting the 100 percent mountain is likely not as hard as pessimists would have us believe, especially since it is possible to deliver the first 90 percent zero carbon system, keeping the grid in balance in every hour, while reducing power costs 10 percent from today’s levels.

的確，消除電力系統的最后10％的排放比開始的90％的排放更昂貴，現在應該優先考慮加快清潔能源的建設，以走上任何一條道路。 但是登頂100％的山峰并不像悲觀主義者所想象的那么難，特別是因為有可能提供第一個90％的零碳系統，使每小時的電網保持平衡，同時將電力成本從今天的水平降低10％。水平。

At least four promising technology pathways exist today to reach 100 percent clean electricity by 2035 without meaningfully raising wholesale costs from today’s levels, and a fifth might raise them 15 percent. Combining these pathways, along with further expected cost declines from solar, wind, and storage, as well as more potential contribution from demand-side flexibility, we are optimistic these cost estimates could be bested by America’s world-class innovators. Add in significant federal research and development funding, and further cost reductions and innovation are likely.

如今，至少存在四種有前途的技術途徑，可以在2035年之前達到100％的清潔電力，而不會從目前的水平上顯著提高批發成本，而第五種可能會將其提高15％。 結合這些途徑，再加上太陽能，風能和儲能的預期成本進一步下降，以及需求方靈活性帶來的更多潛在貢獻，我們樂觀地認為，這些成本估算可以被美國的世界級創新者所超越。 增加大量的聯邦研究與開發資金，可能會進一步降低成本和進行創新。

But a clear and specific policy target is essential to set us on the way. With no time to lose, now is the time for ambitious leadership. A zero-carbon electricity system is achievable and affordable, so what are we waiting for?

但是，明確而具體的政策目標對我們的前進至關重要。 沒有時間可以浪費了，現在是進行雄心勃勃的領導的時候了。 零碳電力系統是可以實現且負擔得起的，那么我們還等什么呢？

Sonia Aggarwal is vice president of Energy Innovation, where she leads the firm’s policy and analytical programs.

Sonia Aggarwal是能源創新部副總裁，負責公司的政策和分析計劃。

Mike O’Boyle is director of electricity policy at Energy Innovation, where he leads the firm’s Power Sector Transformation program.

Mike O'Boyle是能源創新公司電力政策總監，他領導該公司的電力行業轉型計劃。

Amol Phadke is a senior scientist and affiliate at the Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California-Berkeley.

Amol Phadke是加利福尼亞大學伯克利分校高盛公共政策學院的高級科學家和分支機構。

翻譯自: https://medium.com/@EnergyInnovLLC/pathways-to-reach-a-100-percent-clean-electricity-future-delivering-enormous-health-and-job-21c81ccf9037

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