【阅读笔记】数据分析思维：分析方法和业务知识
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【阅读笔记】数据分析思维：分析方法和业务知识
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數(shù)據(jù)分析思維分析方法
- 首頁
- 5W2H分析方法
- 案例1：如何設(shè)計(jì)一款產(chǎn)品
- 案例2：設(shè)計(jì)一款A(yù)pp的調(diào)查問卷，如何設(shè)計(jì)問卷上的問題？
- 邏輯樹分析方法
- 案例1：年度計(jì)劃拆解
- 案例2：芝加哥有多少鋼琴調(diào)音師？(費(fèi)米問題)
- 行業(yè)分析方法
- 多維度拆解分析方法
- 如何使用多維度拆解分析方法？
- 對(duì)比分析方法
- 假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)分析方法
- 相關(guān)分析方法
- 如何使用：
- 兩種數(shù)據(jù)之間有多大程度相關(guān)？
- 相關(guān)系數(shù)的作用是？
- 如何判斷兩者之間有“相關(guān)關(guān)系”？
- 群組分析方法
- 是什么？
- 作用
- 如何用
- RFM分析方法
- 是什么
- 有什么用
- 分類過程
- AARRR模型分析方法
- 是什么
- 獲取用戶：用戶如何找到我們
- 激活用戶：用戶的首次體驗(yàn)如何
- 提高留存：用戶會(huì)回來嗎
- 增加收入：如何賺到更多的錢
- 推薦：用戶會(huì)告訴其他人嗎
- 漏斗分析方法
- 漏斗分析方法
- 參考書籍
首頁
在分析方法的指導(dǎo)下才能知道如何使用工具（Excel、SQL或者Python等）去分析數(shù)據(jù)，解決業(yè)務(wù)問題。
常用的分析方法
| 將復(fù)雜問題變得簡(jiǎn)單 | 邏輯樹分析方法 | 費(fèi)米問題 |
| 行業(yè)分析 | PEST分析方法 | 中國(guó)少兒編程行業(yè)研究 |
| 多個(gè)角度思考 | 對(duì)維度拆解分析方法 | 如何找相親對(duì)象？ |
| 對(duì)比 | 對(duì)比分析方法 | 女朋友胖嗎？ |
| 如何分析原因 | 假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)分析方法 | 警察是如何破案的？ |
| A和B有什么關(guān)系 | 相關(guān)分析方法 | 豆瓣如何推薦電影？ |
| 留存和流失分析 | 群組分析方法 | 微博 |
| 用戶價(jià)值分類 | RFM分析方法 | 信用卡會(huì)員服務(wù) |
| 用戶行為分析 | AARRR分析方法 | 拼多多 |
| 轉(zhuǎn)化分析 | 漏斗分析方法 | 店鋪哪個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)有問題？ |
在工作或者面試中，會(huì)經(jīng)常聽到分析思維、分析思路、分析方法。這三個(gè)詞語有什么關(guān)系呢？其實(shí)簡(jiǎn)單來說，他們都是只分析方法。因?yàn)榉治龇椒ㄊ菍⒘闵⒌南敕ㄕ沓捎袟l理的分析思路。有了分析思路，你就具備了分析思維。
下文在講到每一個(gè)分析方法時(shí)，會(huì)從四個(gè)問題出發(fā)來學(xué)習(xí)。
5W2H分析方法
- 5H：what(是什么)、when(何時(shí))、where(何地)、why(為什么)、who(是誰)
- 2W：how(怎么做)、how much(多少錢)
案例1：如何設(shè)計(jì)一款產(chǎn)品
- what：這是什么產(chǎn)品？
- when：什么時(shí)候需要上線？
- where：在哪里發(fā)布這些產(chǎn)品？
- why：用戶為什么需要它？
- who：這是給誰設(shè)計(jì)的？
- how：這個(gè)產(chǎn)品需要怎么運(yùn)作？
- how much：這個(gè)產(chǎn)品里有付費(fèi)功能嗎？價(jià)格是多少？
案例2：設(shè)計(jì)一款A(yù)pp的調(diào)查問卷，如何設(shè)計(jì)問卷上的問題？
- what：你用這款A(yù)pp做什么事情？
- when：你通常在什么時(shí)間使用這款A(yù)pp？
- where：你會(huì)在什么場(chǎng)景使用這款A(yù)pp？
- why：你為什么選取這款A(yù)pp？
- who：如果你覺得你喜歡這個(gè)產(chǎn)品，你會(huì)推薦給誰？
- how：你覺得我們需要加入什么功能才是比較新穎的？
- how much：如果你任務(wù)這個(gè)App對(duì)你有幫助，你會(huì)花多少錢去購(gòu)買App里的服務(wù)？
5H2W分析方法很好理解，但是在復(fù)雜的商業(yè)問題面前不起作用。
這是因?yàn)閺?fù)雜的商業(yè)問題不會(huì)只有一個(gè)原因，而是由多個(gè)原因引起的，例如銷售為什么下降，這可能是由多個(gè)原因?qū)е碌?#xff0c;這時(shí)候就需要運(yùn)用其他分析方法
邏輯樹分析方法
邏輯樹分析方法是把復(fù)雜的問題拆解成若干個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的子問題，然后像樹枝那樣逐步展開。
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-30fnYkxiEMA22N0O .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-30fnYkxiEMA22N0O .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-30fnYkxiEMA22N0O .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-30fnYkxiEMA22N0O {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}年度計(jì)劃技能學(xué)習(xí)讀書業(yè)務(wù)指標(biāo)分析方法Exce SQL Python健身旅行案例2：芝加哥有多少鋼琴調(diào)音師？(費(fèi)米問題)
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.statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster-alt .inner{fill:#e0e0e0}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .statediagram-cluster .inner{rx:0;ry:0}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .statediagram-state rect.basic{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .statediagram-state rect.divider{stroke-dasharray:10,10;fill:#efefef}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .note-edge{stroke-dasharray:5}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .statediagram-note rect{fill:#fff5ad;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px;rx:0;ry:0}:root{--mermaid-font-family: '"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial';--mermaid-font-family: "Comic Sans MS", "Comic Sans", cursive}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .error-icon{fill:#522}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .error-text{fill:#522;stroke:#522}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .edge-thickness-normal{stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .edge-thickness-thick{stroke-width:3.5px}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .edge-pattern-solid{stroke-dasharray:0}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-PNSclj1QXh5ahqOp {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}芝加哥有多少鋼琴調(diào)音師63人全部鋼琴調(diào)音師1年的總工作時(shí)間
10萬小時(shí)一位調(diào)音師每年工作時(shí)間
1600小時(shí)有多少架鋼琴
5萬鋼琴每年要調(diào)幾次音
1年1次調(diào)一次得多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間
2小時(shí)
需要注意的是，邏輯樹分析方法在解決業(yè)務(wù)問題時(shí)，經(jīng)常不是單獨(dú)存在的，會(huì)融合在其他分析方法里，輔助解決問題。在后面其他分析方法的學(xué)習(xí)中，你會(huì)看到使用了邏輯樹的拆解圖來將一個(gè)復(fù)雜問題拆解成各個(gè)子問題
行業(yè)分析方法
什么時(shí)候需要用到行業(yè)分析方法呢？當(dāng)個(gè)人在對(duì)自己進(jìn)行職業(yè)規(guī)劃，思考選擇哪個(gè)行業(yè)更好的時(shí)候；當(dāng)公司需要對(duì)外部環(huán)境或者行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手有所了解，制度發(fā)展規(guī)劃的時(shí)候；當(dāng)面對(duì)重大問題，需要分析行業(yè)問題的時(shí)候。
PEST分析方法就是對(duì)公司發(fā)展宏觀環(huán)境的分析，所以經(jīng)常用于行業(yè)分析。通常是由政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和技術(shù)這四個(gè)方面來分析。
多維度拆解分析方法
兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵詞：維度，拆解
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-hM5PcvaRdrzJc69i {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}維度拆解維度1維度2維度3為什么要使用多維度拆解分析方法：考察數(shù)據(jù)整體和考察數(shù)據(jù)的不同部分，可能會(huì)得到相反的結(jié)論，所以我們要從多個(gè)維度去觀察數(shù)據(jù)，并相互驗(yàn)證，才能得出相對(duì)可靠的結(jié)論。
如何使用多維度拆解分析方法？
從指標(biāo)構(gòu)成來拆解
從指標(biāo)的定義來看，指標(biāo)的構(gòu)成，例如某店鋪?zhàn)罱隽艘粋€(gè)活動(dòng)，但是活動(dòng)后發(fā)現(xiàn)預(yù)期銷售額沒達(dá)成，原因是什么呢？可以從指標(biāo)定義來拆解。銷售額=新用戶銷售額+老用戶銷售額，所以銷售額可以拆解為新用戶銷售額、老用戶銷售額，然后可以繼續(xù)拆解新用戶的轉(zhuǎn)化和老用戶的復(fù)購(gòu)：
新用戶銷售額=新用戶數(shù)?轉(zhuǎn)化率?新用戶客單價(jià)新用戶銷售額=新用戶數(shù)*轉(zhuǎn)化率*新用戶客單價(jià) 新用戶銷售額=新用戶數(shù)?轉(zhuǎn)化率?新用戶客單價(jià)
老用戶銷售額=老用戶數(shù)?復(fù)購(gòu)率?老用戶客單價(jià)老用戶銷售額=老用戶數(shù)*復(fù)購(gòu)率*老用戶客單價(jià) 老用戶銷售額=老用戶數(shù)?復(fù)購(gòu)率?老用戶客單價(jià)
這樣拆解后，有利于后續(xù)找到原因來制定對(duì)應(yīng)的決策，如果是“新用戶”導(dǎo)致的銷售額目標(biāo)沒達(dá)成，可以對(duì)新用戶發(fā)小額無門檻的折扣券，因?yàn)樾掠脩敉€沒有對(duì)店鋪建立信任，不會(huì)第一次就購(gòu)買很多。如果是“老用戶”導(dǎo)致的銷售額目標(biāo)沒達(dá)成，可以對(duì)老用戶發(fā)高額滿減折扣券，起到提升復(fù)購(gòu)率的效果。
從業(yè)務(wù)流程來拆解
一家線上店鋪?zhàn)隽艘徊ㄍ茝V，老板想看看推廣效果如何呢。推廣效果最直觀的是看用戶增長(zhǎng)了多少定義，衡量指標(biāo)為新增用戶數(shù)。這里的新增用戶數(shù)是指看到推廣渠道的廣告進(jìn)入店鋪的人數(shù)。
首先，我們可以按指標(biāo)構(gòu)成如城市、性別、渠道來拆解新增用戶數(shù)
其次，將指標(biāo)按維度細(xì)分
按照地域細(xì)分，考察一線二線三線及以下等不同城市的新增用戶數(shù)量情況(可視化)。
按照性別細(xì)分，考察男性用戶、女性用戶分別是多少(可視化)。
按照渠道細(xì)分，考察公眾號(hào)、百度、頭條哪個(gè)渠道的用戶來源多(可視化)。
我們可以繼續(xù)從業(yè)務(wù)流程來拆解渠道數(shù)據(jù)。
用戶購(gòu)買的業(yè)務(wù)流程如下：
按業(yè)務(wù)流程拆解后，查看各個(gè)渠道內(nèi)各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)用戶數(shù)情況，分析優(yōu)質(zhì)渠道。
對(duì)比分析方法
如何使用對(duì)比分析法？
想要進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，我們要弄清楚兩個(gè)問題：和誰比，如何比較。
- 和誰比
- 和自己比
- 和行業(yè)比
- 如何比較
- 數(shù)據(jù)整體的大小
- 某些指標(biāo)可用來衡量整體數(shù)據(jù)的大小。常用的是平均值、中位數(shù)，或者某個(gè)業(yè)務(wù)指標(biāo)。
- 數(shù)據(jù)整體的波動(dòng)
- 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差除以平均值得到的值叫做變異系數(shù)。變異系數(shù)可用來衡量整體數(shù)據(jù)的波動(dòng)情況。
- 趨勢(shì)變化
趨勢(shì)變化是從時(shí)間維度來看數(shù)據(jù)隨著時(shí)間發(fā)生的變化。常用的方法是時(shí)間折線圖，環(huán)比和同比。- 時(shí)間折線圖是以時(shí)間為橫軸、數(shù)據(jù)為縱軸繪制的折線圖。從時(shí)間折線圖上可以了解數(shù)據(jù)從過去到現(xiàn)在發(fā)生了哪些變化，還可以通過過去的變化預(yù)測(cè)未來的動(dòng)向。
- 環(huán)比是和上一個(gè)時(shí)間段對(duì)比，用于觀察長(zhǎng)期的數(shù)據(jù)集。例如某數(shù)據(jù)在2020年12月比2020年11月下降10%
- 同比是與同一時(shí)間段進(jìn)行對(duì)比，用于觀察長(zhǎng)期的的數(shù)據(jù)集。例如某數(shù)據(jù)在2020年12月比2019年12月下降10%
- 數(shù)據(jù)整體的大小
在進(jìn)行比較時(shí)，要注意比較對(duì)象的規(guī)模要一致。
??A/B測(cè)試的背后也使用了對(duì)比分析方法，什么是A/B測(cè)試，如果APP功能設(shè)計(jì)的讀者朋友們可能會(huì)經(jīng)常面臨多個(gè)設(shè)計(jì)方案的選擇。例如某個(gè)按鈕是用藍(lán)色還是紅色，是放左邊還是放右邊？傳統(tǒng)的解決方法通常是集體討論表決，或者有某位專家或領(lǐng)導(dǎo)來拍板，實(shí)在決定不了時(shí)，也有隨機(jī)選一個(gè)上線的。雖然傳統(tǒng)解決辦法多數(shù)情況下也是有效的，但A/B測(cè)試可能是解決這類問題的一個(gè)更好的方法。
??簡(jiǎn)單來說，A/B測(cè)試就是為同一個(gè)目標(biāo)制定兩個(gè)版本，兩個(gè)版本只有某個(gè)方面不一樣，其他方面保持一致，例如兩個(gè)版本只有按鈕的顏色不一樣，讓一部分用戶用A版本（實(shí)驗(yàn)組），另一部分用戶使用B版本（對(duì)照組），運(yùn)行一段時(shí)間后，分別統(tǒng)計(jì)兩組用戶的表現(xiàn)，然后對(duì)兩組數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，最后選擇效果更好的版本正式發(fā)布給全部用戶。
假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)分析方法
假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)分析方法是一種使用數(shù)據(jù)來做決策的過程，底層思想其實(shí)很簡(jiǎn)單，就是邏輯推理。
根據(jù)要解決的問題，提出假設(shè)。例如警察破案的時(shí)候會(huì)根據(jù)犯罪現(xiàn)場(chǎng)提出假設(shè)：這個(gè)人有可能時(shí)嫌疑人。
通過收集證據(jù)來證明。例如警察通過收集嫌疑犯的犯罪數(shù)據(jù)，來作為證據(jù)。
這里的結(jié)論不是你主觀猜想出來的，而是依靠找到的證據(jù)得到的結(jié)論。例如警察不能主觀地去猜想，然后下結(jié)論說這個(gè)人是罪犯，而是要通過收集的證據(jù)來證明這個(gè)人是不是罪犯。
案例1：
我們分析問題時(shí)可以按用戶、產(chǎn)品、競(jìng)品這3個(gè)維度提出假設(shè)，來檢查提出的假設(shè)是否由遺漏。這3個(gè)維度分別對(duì)應(yīng)公司的3個(gè)部門：用戶對(duì)應(yīng)運(yùn)營(yíng)部，產(chǎn)品對(duì)應(yīng)產(chǎn)品部，競(jìng)品對(duì)應(yīng)市場(chǎng)部。
這3個(gè)維度有助于在發(fā)現(xiàn)問題原因后，對(duì)應(yīng)落實(shí)到具體部門上，有利于把問題說清楚。
運(yùn)營(yíng)部假設(shè)2:產(chǎn)品問題
產(chǎn)品部假設(shè)3:競(jìng)品問題
市場(chǎng)部
我們還可以從4P營(yíng)銷理論出發(fā)來提出假設(shè)。什么時(shí)4P營(yíng)銷理論呢？
營(yíng)銷組合有幾十個(gè)要素，這些要素可以概況為4類：產(chǎn)品、價(jià)格、渠道、促銷
為了尋找銷售額下降的原因，可以利用4P營(yíng)銷理論從4個(gè)維度提出假設(shè)
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.edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;}#mermaid-svg-snjr8YXoLMqyysm7 {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}用戶進(jìn)入店鋪看到活動(dòng)成為會(huì)員送折扣券點(diǎn)擊領(lǐng)取會(huì)員卡領(lǐng)取折扣卷案例1：解讀報(bào)表里數(shù)據(jù)的波動(dòng)
| 日活躍率 | 14.4% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 17.8% | 14.5% | 1.8% | 4% |
繪制折線圖查看數(shù)據(jù)隨時(shí)間變化的趨勢(shì)：發(fā)現(xiàn)問題，周六數(shù)據(jù)下降了
為了更好的對(duì)比分析，需要找出前幾周的數(shù)據(jù)是怎樣的，這樣可以從整體上看出數(shù)據(jù)在一個(gè)較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間范圍內(nèi)是怎樣變化的。同時(shí)還可以看出數(shù)據(jù)變化的規(guī)律。
【圖省略】
通過和前幾周數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)比，發(fā)現(xiàn)這個(gè)App的規(guī)律是每周末的活躍率都有稍微的下降了5%。那么，本周六日活率為什么突然下降了呢？如何查找問題發(fā)生的原因呢？這時(shí)候假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)分析方法就派上用場(chǎng)了。
假設(shè)1：用戶問題？-> 用戶數(shù)據(jù)
假設(shè)2：產(chǎn)品問題？-> 產(chǎn)品問題
假設(shè)3：競(jìng)品問題？-> 競(jìng)品問題
相關(guān)分析方法
研究?jī)蓚€(gè)變量之間關(guān)系的方法就叫相關(guān)分析方法。
作用：
如何使用：
- 圖形：散點(diǎn)圖
兩種數(shù)據(jù)之間有多大程度相關(guān)？
- 相關(guān)系數(shù)
相關(guān)系數(shù)的作用是？
1、相關(guān)系數(shù)的數(shù)值大小可以表示兩種數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)程度
2、相關(guān)系數(shù)數(shù)值的正負(fù)可以反映兩種數(shù)據(jù)之間的相關(guān)方向
如何判斷兩者之間有“相關(guān)關(guān)系”？
如果相關(guān)關(guān)系的絕對(duì)值在0~0.3，就認(rèn)為是低度相關(guān)；
如果相關(guān)關(guān)系的絕對(duì)值在0.3~0.6，就認(rèn)為是中度相關(guān)；
如果相關(guān)關(guān)系的絕對(duì)值在0.6~1，就認(rèn)為是高度相關(guān)；
可用Excel分析工具庫來分析相關(guān)系數(shù)，先用散點(diǎn)圖查看有無異常數(shù)據(jù)，再進(jìn)行分析
相關(guān)關(guān)系不等于因果關(guān)系。
群組分析方法
是什么？
群組分析方法是按某個(gè)特征，將數(shù)據(jù)分為不同的組，然后比較各組的數(shù)據(jù)。
作用
群組分析方法常用來分析用戶留存率（流失率）隨時(shí)間發(fā)生了哪些變化，然后找出用戶留下或者離開的原因。在金融行業(yè)，群組分析還可用于用戶逾期分析
如何用
先試用群組分析方法，找到留存率低或者留存率高的組；然后就可以使用假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)、相關(guān)分析等方法，研究為什么這些組留存率低或留存率高。找到原因后，就可以對(duì)應(yīng)地優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品。
當(dāng)群組分析表格里的數(shù)據(jù)比較多的時(shí)候，直接分析起來比較困難，這時(shí)可以把數(shù)據(jù)繪制成折線圖，這樣就可以很容易地發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)了哪些變化。
除了按時(shí)間分組，還可根據(jù)業(yè)務(wù)場(chǎng)景進(jìn)行分組。
RFM分析方法
是什么
RFM是3個(gè)指標(biāo)的縮寫：最近一次消費(fèi)的時(shí)間間隔R、消費(fèi)頻率F、消費(fèi)金額M
有什么用
RFM可以把用戶分為8類，這樣就可以對(duì)不同用戶使用不同的營(yíng)銷策略，例如信用卡的會(huì)員服務(wù)
分類過程
AARRR模型分析方法
是什么
AARRR：
獲取用戶：用戶如何找到我們
- 渠道曝光量
- 渠道轉(zhuǎn)化率
- 日新增用戶數(shù)
- 日應(yīng)用下載量
- 獲客成本
激活用戶：用戶的首次體驗(yàn)如何
提高留存：用戶會(huì)回來嗎
增加收入：如何賺到更多的錢
- 用來衡量業(yè)務(wù)總量的指標(biāo)，例如成交總額、成交數(shù)量
- 用來衡量每個(gè)人平均情況的指標(biāo)，例如客單價(jià)
- 用來衡量付費(fèi)情況的指標(biāo)，例如付費(fèi)率，復(fù)購(gòu)率
推薦：用戶會(huì)告訴其他人嗎
- 轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)率
- 轉(zhuǎn)化率
漏斗分析方法
作用：衡量業(yè)務(wù)流程每一步的轉(zhuǎn)化效率
漏斗分析方法
參考書籍
《數(shù)據(jù)分析思維：分析方法和業(yè)務(wù)知識(shí)》 - 猴子
總結(jié)
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