本文數據集來自Kaggle波士頓房價預測項目https://www.kaggle.com/c/house-prices-advanced-regression-techniques/data
1、數據導入

import pandas as pd import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns import numpy as np from scipy.stats import norm from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler from scipy import stats import warnings warnings.filterwarnings('ignore') %matplotlib inlinetrain = pd.read_csv('input/train.csv') test = pd.read_csv('input/test.csv')

2、數據相關性分析

sample = pd.read_csv('input/sample_submission.csv')corrmat = train.corr() f, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 9)) sns.heatmap(corrmat, vmax=.8, square=True)

3、挑選相關變量

k = 10 cols = corrmat.nlargest(k, 'SalePrice')['SalePrice'].index cm = np.corrcoef(train[cols].values.T) sns.set(font_scale=1.25) hm = sns.heatmap(cm, cbar=True, annot=True, square=True, fmt='.2f', annot_kws={'size': 10}, yticklabels=cols.values, xticklabels=cols.values) plt.show()

sns.set() cols = ['SalePrice', 'OverallQual', 'GrLivArea', 'GarageCars', 'TotalBsmtSF', 'FullBath', 'YearBuilt'] sns.pairplot(train[cols], size = 2.5) plt.show()

train_Id = train['Id'] test_Id = test['Id'] len_train = train.shape[0] len_test = test.shape[0] housing = pd.concat([train, test], sort=False) housing.shape (2919, 81) housing[cols].columns Index(['SalePrice', 'OverallQual', 'GrLivArea', 'GarageCars', 'TotalBsmtSF','FullBath', 'YearBuilt'],dtype='object') housing = housing[cols]

4、處理缺失值

housing.isnull().sum() SalePrice 1459 OverallQual 0 GrLivArea 0 GarageCars 1 TotalBsmtSF 1 FullBath 0 YearBuilt 0 dtype: int64 housing.GarageCars = housing.GarageCars.fillna(housing.GarageCars.mean()) housing.TotalBsmtSF = housing.TotalBsmtSF.fillna(housing.TotalBsmtSF.mean()) train = housing[:len_train] test = housing[len_train:]

5、訓練模型

xtrain=train.drop("SalePrice",axis=1) ytrain=train['SalePrice'] xtest=test.drop("SalePrice", axis=1) from math import sqrt train_X, val_X, train_y, val_y = train_test_split(xtrain, ytrain, random_state=1) my_pipeline = XGBRegressor(n_estimators=1000, learning_rate=0.05) my_pipeline.fit(train_X, train_y) val_preds = my_pipeline.predict(val_X) msel = mean_squared_error(np.log(val_preds), np.log(val_y)) print("RMSE: %2f" %sqrt(msel)) RMSE: 0.173459 test_preds = my_pipeline.predict(xtest)output = pd.DataFrame({'Id': test_Id,'SalePrice': test_preds}) output.set_index('Id').to_csv('submission.csv')

6、異常值剔除

var = 'GrLivArea' data = pd.concat([train['SalePrice'], train[var]], axis=1) data.plot.scatter(x=var, y='SalePrice', ylim=(0,800000)); 'c' argument looks like a single numeric RGB or RGBA sequence, which should be avoided as value-mapping will have precedence in case its length matches with 'x' & 'y'. Please use a 2-D array with a single row if you really want to specify the same RGB or RGBA value for all points.

train = train.drop(train[train.index == 1298].index) train = train.drop(train[train.index == 523].index) var = 'GrLivArea' data = pd.concat([train['SalePrice'], train[var]], axis=1) data.plot.scatter(x=var, y='SalePrice', ylim=(0,800000)); 'c' argument looks like a single numeric RGB or RGBA sequence, which should be avoided as value-mapping will have precedence in case its length matches with 'x' & 'y'. Please use a 2-D array with a single row if you really want to specify the same RGB or RGBA value for all points.

xtrain=train.drop("SalePrice",axis=1) ytrain=train['SalePrice'] xtest=test.drop("SalePrice", axis=1) from math import sqrt train_X, val_X, train_y, val_y = train_test_split(xtrain, ytrain, random_state=1)my_pipeline = XGBRegressor(n_estimators=1000, learning_rate=0.05) my_pipeline.fit(train_X, train_y)val_preds = my_pipeline.predict(val_X) msel = mean_squared_error(np.log(val_preds), np.log(val_y)) print("RMSE: %2f" %sqrt(msel)) RMSE: 0.162534 test_preds = my_pipeline.predict(xtest)output = pd.DataFrame({'Id': test_Id,'SalePrice': test_preds}) output.set_index('Id').to_csv('submission2.csv')

最終結果0.169，排名75%。后續優化方向，變量選擇、特征工程、模型選擇。

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