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An opportunity for a new kind of analysis of Major League Baseball data may be upon us soon. Here’s how we can prepare.

不久之后，我們將有機會對美國職棒大聯盟數據進行新的分析。 這是我們準備的方法。

It is tempting to think that we are currently tracking everything we possibly can in a baseball game, but this is untrue. Although we have a sea of data relating to the position of the baseball at all times, there are still plenty of aspects of the game that are completely ignored in our data collection (as far as I know). The foremost aspect that is ripe for analysis once we begin tracking it, in my opinion, is data relating to whether each swing was early, on time, or late which I will refer to as swing timing data.

很容易以為我們目前正在跟蹤棒球比賽中可能會發生的一切，但這是不正確的。 盡管我們一直都有與棒球位置相關的大量數據，但據我們所知，在我們的數據收集中，仍有很多游戲方面被完全忽略。 我認為，一旦我們開始對其進行跟蹤分析，最適合進行分析的方面是有關每個揮桿是早，準時還是晚的數據，我將其稱為揮桿計時數據。

Although we have understood for decades that the timing of a swing can influence whether the pitch is hit or not, there is no publicly available data about this piece of information! Throughout the data revolution in baseball, the timing of each swing has simply not been recorded. One likely reason for this is that it is difficult to figure out whether a swing was too early, too late, or on time, but that didn’t stop me from trying!

盡管幾十年來我們已經了解到，揮桿的時間會影響是否擊中音高，但沒有關于此信息的公開數據！ 在棒球的整個數據革命中，每次揮桿的時間都沒有被記錄下來。 造成這種情況的一個可能原因是，很難確定揮桿是否為時過早，太晚或準時，但這并沒有阻止我嘗試！

Armed with a bit of sample data and some imagination, I set out to unearth a whole new area of baseball analysis that may be an important part of the impending arms race of MLB teams competing to find the best new uses for their Hawkeye data.

有了一些樣本數據和一些想象力，我開始發掘棒球分析的一個全新領域，這可能是美國職業棒球大聯盟(MLB)團隊為尋找其Hawkeye數據的最佳新用途而即將進行的軍備競賽中的重要組成部分。

樣本數據 (Sample Data)

For this project, I watched all 160 total whiffs from 5 different hitters in 2020 and did my best to label each swing as being Early, On Time, Late, or a Checked Swing. This data was collected to give us an idea of what kinds of questions we could answer with comprehensive swing timing data and NOT to actually answer any of those questions with certainty.

在這個項目中，我觀看了2020年來自5個不同擊球手的全部160種鞭打動作，并盡力將每個揮桿標記為“早起，準時，遲發或格紋”。 收集這些數據是為了讓我們了解我們可以使用全面的揮桿計時數據回答哪些問題，而不是確定地實際回答任何這些問題。

I selected five sample players who had different offensive profiles and watched each of their 2020 whiffs (as of August 13th), grouping them by their timing, early, on time, late, or checked. These hitters were:

我選擇了五名樣本球員，他們的進攻方式各不相同，并觀看了他們2020年的每種嗅覺(截至8月13日)，并按時間，早，時，晚或檢查的時間分組。 這些打擊者是：

DJ LeMahieu: High Production, Low Whiff (88th percentile xwOBA, 99th percentile Whiff Rate)

DJ LeMahieu：高產量，低通氣度(xwOBA為88％，通氣率為99％)

Eddie Rosario: Low Production, Low Whiff (22nd, 87th)

埃迪·羅薩里奧 ( Eddie Rosario)：低產量，低嗅覺(第22名，第87名)

Fernando Tatis, Jr.: High Production, Low Whiff (87th, 21st)

小費爾南多·塔蒂斯( Fernando Tatis )：高產量，低嗅覺(第87、21名)

Mike Zunino: Low Production, High Whiff (0th, 6th)

邁克·祖尼諾 ( Mike Zunino)：低產量，高嗅覺(0、6)

Max Muncy: Average Production, Average Whiff (52nd, 52nd)

最大黏度：平均產量，平均嗅覺(第52、52)

By choosing a diverse group of hitters, I was able to expand the types of questions I could ask from this kind of analysis! Without further adieu, here are the most interesting questions that I think could be answered with comprehensive swing timing data.

通過選擇多樣化的擊球手，我可以擴展從此類分析中可以提出的問題類型！ 沒有更多的理由，我認為可以通過綜合的揮桿計時數據來回答最有趣的問題。

＃1。 為什么擊球手會搖擺而錯過？ (#1. Why Do Hitters Swing And Miss?)

Hitting a baseball is hard. But why? In my view, hitting has 3 main components: timing, power, and barrel placement. You need all 3 to make hard contact. If your swing only has two of the main components, you can expect to whiff or get weak contact.

打棒球很難。 但為什么？ 在我看來，擊球有3個主要組成部分：計時，力量和發條盒位置。 您需要三者才能保持密切聯系。 如果您的揮桿動作只有兩個主要成分，則您可能會聞起來或接觸不良。

Image By Author圖片作者

As you can see, I believe not all whiffs are created equally and that there are two main types of whiffs which I will name and describe here.

如您所見，我相信并不是所有的鞭子都是一樣的，我將在這里命名和描述兩種主要的鞭子。

A Type 1 Whiff is a swing with power and good timing, but the bat is in the wrong place. The whiff is a result of the hitter’s miscalculation of where the pitch will be in the strike zone when it crosses the plate. Against Jakob Junis on August 7th, Rosario swung under a high Fastball. His swing was both powerful and on time, but was too far under the ball, resulting in a Type 1 Whiff. (Video)

1號鞭子是一種揮桿有力且時機不錯的揮桿，但蝙蝠的位置不正確。 揮動是由于擊球手錯誤估計了擊球越過板時擊球區域中的音高位置。 8月7日，對陣雅各布·朱尼斯(Jakob Junis)，羅薩里奧(Rosario)在高水平的快球(Fastball)下擺動。 他的揮桿既有力又準時，但在球下距離太遠，造成了1型鞭打。 ( 視頻 )

In contrast, a Type 2 Whiff is a swing with power and good barrel placement but poor timing. This type of whiff is the result of the hitter’s miscalculation of when the pitch will cross the strike zone. These occur when the hitter swings too late or too early. On July 24th against Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Zunino was too early on a Changeup. (Video)

相比之下， 2型小號揮桿具有力量和良好的發條盒位置，但計時性差。 這種類型的鞭打是擊球手錯誤估算出俯仰何時會越過打擊區的結果。 當擊球手擺動得太遲或太早時，就會發生這種情況。 在7月24日對陣Hyun-Jin Ryu的情況下，Mike Zunino參加Changeup還為時尚早。 ( 視頻 )

Zunino had good barrel placement, as the path of his bat intersected the path of the ball (because the two are overlapping), but he swung too early, so his bat missed the ball.

Zunino的槍管位置很好，因為球拍的路徑與球的路徑相交(因為兩者重疊)，但他擺動得太早，因此球拍錯過了球。

My theory here is that there are two distinct types of whiffs. Type 1 Whiffs occur when the pitch moves differently than the hitter expects it to. Type 2 Whiffs occur when the pitch is slower or faster than the hitter expects. A third type of whiff would be a whiff that follows the definition of both previous types, and these are typically pretty damn ugly.

我的理論是，有兩種截然不同的類型。 當音高的變化與擊球手所預期的不同時，將發生1類嘯叫。 當音調比擊球手預期的速度慢或快時，將發生2類嘯叫。 第三種類型的鞭子是遵循兩種先前類型的定義的鞭子，它們通常非常難看 。

Having comprehensive swing timing data could essentially prove or disprove this theory and help us better understand why hitters whiff.

具有全面的揮桿計時數據可以從本質上證明或反駁這一理論，并幫助我們更好地理解擊球手為何揮之不去。

＃2。 不同的擊球手有不同的揮桿姿勢嗎？ (#2. Do Different Hitters Have Different Whiff Profiles?)

With current public data we can quantify which pitch types give each hitter the most trouble at the plate, but looking at timing can give us another layer of understanding as to why a hitter struggles with certain pitches.

利用最新的公開數據，我們可以量化哪些擊球類型會給每個擊球手帶來最大的麻煩，但是看一下計時可以使我們對擊球手為什么要在特定的擊球中掙扎感到另一層理解。

Between 2009 and 2010, Jose Bautista transformed himself from a fourth outfielder into the league leader in Home Runs. In this ESPN feature (which I highly recommend), Bautista mentions that he added a leg kick between 2009 and 2010 which helped improve his timing at the plate.

在2009年至2010年之間，何塞·包蒂斯塔(Jose Bautista)從第四名外野手轉變為全壘打的聯盟領袖。 在這個ESPN功能中 (我強烈推薦)，包蒂斯塔提到他在2009年至2010年之間增加了踢腿動作，這有助于改善他在板塊比賽中的時機。

Essentially, Bautista attributed one of the biggest player development success stories of the decade to fixing his swing timing, something we do not currently measure. How many other players are currently struggling as a result of fixable timing issues that are going unrecognized?

本質上，包蒂斯塔將十年來最大的球員發展成功案例歸因于固定他的揮桿時間，這是我們目前無法衡量的。 由于無法解決的固定時間問題，目前還有多少其他參與者在苦苦掙扎？

My theory is that every hitter has certain tendencies with his timing. Here is an example of the kind of quantification of timing profiles this data should be able to provide for us to help diagnose and understand our hitters:

我的理論是，每個擊球手的時機都有一定的傾向。 這是一個時序配置文件量化示例，該數據應該能夠為我們提供幫助，幫助他們診斷和理解擊球手：

Image By Author圖片作者

On this plot, the height of the bars represents total whiffs on Fastballs. Tatis has the most, LeMahieu has the least. That is important info. On Fastball whiffs, Muncy is the best at being on time and Rosario is usually late. Also potnetially important!

在此圖上，條形圖的高度代表“快球”上的總鞭打聲。 Tatis最多，LeMahieu最少。 那是重要的信息。 在Fastball嗅覺上，Munncy是最準時的，而Rosario通常會遲到。 也是重要的！

What about whiff profiles for Curveballs, for example?

例如，Curveballs的嗅探輪廓如何？

Image By Author圖片作者

We can see that Tatis has whiffed the most from Curveballs (although a larger scale analysis should probably be looking at whiff rates, not raw whiffs). When Rosario has whiffed on Curveballs, he has always been early. When Zunino has whiffed on Curveballs, he has always been on time. Interesting!

我們可以看到Tatis從Curveballs中獲得的收益最大(盡管更大規模的分析可能應該關注的是成鞭率，而不是原始成脂)。 當羅薩里奧(Rosario)在Curveballs上狂奔時，他總是很早。 當Zunino揮舞著Curveballs時，他一直都很準時。 有趣！

Looking at the bigger picture, we can easily see that our hitters have whiffed more on Fastballs than Curveballs this season, that hitters are typically late on Fastballs when they whiff and early on Curveballs when they whiff but that this is not always the case. Similar charts and trends could be analyzed for all pitch types and in many different scenarios.

從更大的角度來看，我們可以很容易地看到，本賽季我們的擊球手在Fastballs上的鞭打比在Curveballs上鞭打更多，當擊打者在鞭打時，擊打者通常在Fastballs上晚，而在Curveball擊打時則更早，但是并非總是如此。 可以針對所有音高類型以及在許多不同情況下分析相似的圖表和趨勢。

We could also answer questions about league-wide trends like whether players who have good timing on their whiffs tend to be more productive when they aren’t whiffing:

我們還可以回答有關聯盟范圍內趨勢的問題，例如，那些有良好時機的球員是否會在不揮桿時提高生產率：

Image By Author圖片作者

To answer the question: Yes, there is a positive association in the sample data! (No, this trend should not be extrapolated to the league at large at this time!)

要回答這個問題：是的，樣本數據中存在正相關！ (不，目前不應該將這種趨勢推斷給整個聯盟！)

In my mind, there could be lots of predictive power in a swing timing variable that could help us better predict how a hitter is likely to do going forward. But whether this is the case or not, being able to visualize a hitter’s timing profile has a chance to be a valuable player evaluation tool going forward.

在我看來，揮桿計時變量中可能有很多預測力，可以幫助我們更好地預測擊球手的前途。 但是無論是否如此，能夠可視化擊球手的時間配置文件都有機會成為有價值的球員評估工具。

＃3。 其他因素如何影響擺正時？ (#3. How Do Other Factors Influence Swing Timing?)

There are so many variables to what happens in a plate appearance, so which of those variables impact swing timing? Previous pitch? Pitch number of the plate appearance?

印版外觀中發生的變數太多，那么哪些變數會影響擺動時間呢？ 以前的音高？ 板數的節距多少？

I’ve heard some anecdotal speculation that a hitter is more likely to have good timing on a pitch if they see it two times in a row. Swing timing analysis could test that! But more broadly, we would be able to better understand the interplay between subsequent pitches. Are batters more likely to be late on a high fastball when the previous pitch was a slow curve? Which pitch should the pitcher throw next after a hitter is late on a fastball?

我聽到一些傳聞說，如果擊球手連續兩次見識擊球手，他們更有可能在場上有良好的時機。 擺動時序分析可以證明這一點！ 但更廣泛地說，我們將能夠更好地理解后續音高之間的相互作用。 當先前的球速是緩慢的曲線時，擊球手在高球速擊中更可能遲到嗎？ 擊球手遲到快球后，投手接下來應該投哪個距離？

Currently, we could speculate all day about the answers to these questions and try to estimate how pitches interact. With comprehensive swing timing data, we could essentially know for sure.

目前，我們可以整天猜測這些問題的答案，并嘗試估算音高如何相互作用。 有了全面的揮桿計時數據，我們基本上可以肯定地知道。

In my sample data, I was able to make a few fun graphs:

在示例數據中，我可以制作一些有趣的圖形：

Image By Author圖片作者

I found that our sample hitters were most commonly late on fastballs that came one pitch after another fastball, but were on time a fair bit of the time as well. Keep in mind, each observation you see above was a whiff. Offspeed pitches after fastballs in this data most commonly elicited a late swing. This all lines up with our existing understanding, which is a good sign!

我發現我們的樣本擊球手通常是在快球上遲到的，快球是接一個球接一個快球的，但是在準時時間上也相當。 請記住，您在上面看到的每個觀察結果都是一陣嗅覺。 在此數據中，快球之后的超速俯仰最常引起后期揮桿。 所有這些都與我們現有的理解一致，這是一個好兆頭！

Additionally, we could look at whether hitters are more likely to be on time the more pitches they see in a plate appearance:

另外，我們可以看看擊球手在板狀外觀中看到的音高越多，擊球手是否更可能準時到達：

Image By Author圖片作者

By tracking the heights of the purple bars, we can see that hitters in this sample were not more likely to be on time as the plate appearance went on. But is this the case for the rest of the league? We don’t know, but we would with swing timing data!

通過跟蹤紫色條的高度，我們可以看到，隨著板外觀的進行，該示例中的擊打者不太可能準時到達。 但這對聯盟其他成員來說是這樣嗎？ 我們不知道，但是我們會提供揮桿計時數據！

結論 (Conclusion)

Hopefully this article has sparked your imagination and convinced you that there is plenty to learn about the game of baseball (especially the batter-pitcher interaction) from swing timing data. This article only focused on swings and misses from 5 MLB hitters in about 3 weeks of MLB play. Imagine how much we could learn from swing timing data on all swings by all hitters in all games!

希望本文能夠激發您的想象力，并說服您從揮桿計時數據中可以學到很多有關棒球比賽(尤其是擊球手與投手之間的互動)的知識。 本文僅關注大約3周的美國職業棒球大聯盟比賽中5名美國職業棒球大聯盟擊球手的搖擺和失誤。 想象一下，我們可以從所有游戲中所有擊球手的所有揮桿動作的揮桿計時數據中學到多少！

Swing timing data is not currently available publicly (as far as I know), but it could be available in the not-so-distant future if Hawkeye is able to function as advertised. If it is, teams will have a great opportunity to use that data better than their competitors to gain a competitive advantage and as with any large new data source, it can be hard to even know where to start your analysis. But after reading this, I hope teams will begin by examining this topic as the potentially game-changing topic that it is.

(據我所知)當前尚未公開擺動時間數據，但如果Hawkeye能夠像宣傳的那樣工作，那么擺動時間數據將在不久的將來提供。 如果是這樣，團隊將有很大的機會比競爭對手更好地使用該數據，以獲取競爭優勢，并且與任何大型新數據源一樣，甚至很難知道從哪里開始分析。 但是，在閱讀本文之后，我希望團隊首先從研究這個話題開始，這個話題可能會改變游戲規則。

Thank you for reading! If you have any comments or questions, let me know on Twitter: @Moore_Stats

感謝您的閱讀！ 如果您有任何意見或疑問，請在Twitter上告訴我： @Moore_Stats

Data and video from baseballsavant.com

來自balloonsavant.com的數據和視頻

翻譯自: https://towardsdatascience.com/3-things-we-could-learn-from-swing-timing-analysis-84486fdab209

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